Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2019: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

GBD 2019 Demographics Collaborators

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

    978 Citations (SciVal)
    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)1160-1203
    Number of pages44
    JournalThe Lancet
    Volume396
    Issue number10258
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished (VoR) - 17 Oct 2020

    Funding

    Research reported in this publication was supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the University of Melbourne, Public Health England, the Norwegian Institute of Public Health, the National Institute on Aging of the National Institutes of Health (NIH; award P30AG047845), and the National Institute of Mental Health of the NIH (award R01MH110163). This analysis uses data or information from the Longitudinal Aging Study in India (LASI) pilot micro data and documentation. The development and release of the LASI pilot study was funded by the National Institute on Aging of the NIH (R21AG032572, R03AG043052, and R01AG030153). The Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics granted the researchers access to relevant data in accordance with license number SLN2014-3-170, after subjecting data to processing aiming to preserve the confidentiality of individual data in accordance with the General Statistics Law, 2000. The researchers are solely responsible for the conclusions and inferences drawn upon available data. Data were included from the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring survey, conducted by the National Research University Higher School of Economics and ZAO Demoscope together with Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and the Institute of Sociology, Russia Academy of Sciences. The United States Aging, Demographics, and Memory Study is a supplement to the Health and Retirement Study, which is sponsored by the National Institute of Aging (grant number NIA U01AG009740). It was conducted jointly by Duke University and the University of Michigan. L G Abreu acknowledges support from Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (Brazil; finance code 001) and Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq, a Brazilian funding agency). O Adetokunboh acknowledges the South African Department of Science and Innovation and the National Research Foundation. A Agrawal acknowledges the Wellcome Trust DBT India Alliance Senior Fellowship. S Aljunid acknowledges the Department of Health Policy and Management, Faculty of Public Health, Kuwait University and International Centre for Casemix and Clinical Coding, Faculty of Medicine, National University of Malaysia for the approval and support to participate in this research project. M Ausloos, C Herteliu, and A Pana acknowledge partial support by a grant of the Romanian National Authority for Scientific Research and Innovation, CNDS-UEFISCDI, project number PN-III-P4-ID-PCCF-2016-0084. T Bärnighausen acknowledges support from the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation through the Alexander von Humboldt Professor award, funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research. D Bennett acknowledges support by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Oxford Biomedical Research Centre. The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the NHS, the NIHR or the UK Department of Health and Social Care. J J Carrero was supported by the Swedish Research Council (2019-01059). F Caravlho and E Fernandes acknowledge support from UID/MULTI/04378/2019 and UID/QUI/50006/2019 with funding from FCT/MCTES through national funds. V M Costa acknowledges the grant SFRH/BHD/110001/2015, received by Portuguese national funds through Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia, IP, under the Norma Transitória DL57/2016/CP1334/CT0006. K Deribe acknowledges support by the Wellcome Trust (201900/Z/16/Z) as part of his International Intermediate Fellowship. M Ferreira acknowledges her research fellowship from the National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) of Australia. C Flohr acknowledges support by the NIHR Biomedical Research Centre based at Guy's and St Thomas' NHS Foundation Trust. M Freitas acknowledges financial support from the EU (European Regional Development Fund [FEDER] funds through COMPETE POCI-01-0145-FEDER-029248) and National Funds (Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia) through project PTDC/NAN-MAT/29248/2017. C Herteliu was partially supported by a grant co-funded by FEDER through Operational Competitiveness Program (project ID P_40_382). P Hoogar acknowledges the Bio Cultural Studies, Manipal Academy of Higher Education, and Manipal and Centre for Holistic Development and Research, Kalaghatgi. S V Katikireddi acknowledges funding from a NRS Senior Clinical Fellowship (SCAF/15/02), the Medical Research Council (MC_UU_12017/13, MC_UU_12017/15), and the Scottish Government Chief Scientist Office (SPHSU13, SPHSU15). Y J Kim was supported by Research Management Office, Xiamen University Malaysia (XMUMRF/2018-C2/ITCM/0001). K Krishan is supported by the UCG Centre of Advanced Study awarded to the Department of Anthropology, Panjab University, Chandigarh, India. M Kumar acknowledges the Fogarty International Centre and NIH for the K43 award (K43 TW 010716-03). B Lacey acknowledges support from the NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre and the BHF Centre of Research Excellence, Oxford. J V Lazarus was supported by a Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities Miguel Servet grant (Instituto de Salud Carlos III [ISCIII]/ESF, the EU [CP18/00074]). J McGrath acknowledges support by the Danish National Research Foundation (Niels Bohr Professorship). W Mendoza acknowledges the Population and Development department at the UN Population Fund Country Office in Peru, which does not necessarily endorse this study. George Milne acknowledges support provided by The University of Western Australia. I Moreno Velásquez acknowledges support by the Sistema Nacional de Investigación (SENACYT, Panamá). U O Mueller acknowledges funding by the German National Cohort Study (BMBF grant number 01ER1801D). S Nomura acknowledges the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology of Japan (18K10082). A Ortiz was supported by ISCIII PI19/00815, DTS18/00032, ISCIII-RETIC REDinREN RD016/0009 Fondos FEDER, FRIAT, Comunidad de Madrid B2017/BMD-3686 CIFRA2-CM. These funding sources had no role in the writing of the manuscript or the decision to submit it for publication. G C Patton was supported by a NHMRC fellowship. A Raggi, D Sattin, and S Schiavolin were supported by a grant from the Italian Ministry of Health (Ricerca Corrente, Fondazione Istituto Neurologico C Besta, Linea 4—Outcome Research: dagli Indicatori alle Raccomandazioni Cliniche). A M Samy was supported by a fellowship from the Egyptian Fulbright Mission Program. D F Santomauro is affiliated with the Queensland Centre for Mental Health Research, which receives core funding from the Queensland Department of Health. M M Santric-Milicevic acknowledges the Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development of the Republic of Serbia (contract number 175087). A Sheikh was supported by Health Data Research UK. J B Soriano is funded by the Centro de Investigación en Red de Enfermedades Respiratorias, ISCIII. R Tabarés-Seisdedos was supported in part by the national grant PI17/00719 from ISCIII–FEDER. S Tadakamadla was supported by an NHMRC Early Career Fellowship. N Taveira was partially supported by the European & Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership, the EU (LIFE project, reference RIA2016MC-1615). M Tonelli acknowledges the David Freeze Chair in Health Services Research at the University of Calgary. C S Wiysonge was supported by the South African Medical Research Council. S B Zaman received a scholarship from the Australian Government research training programme in support of his academic career. Editorial note: the Lancet Group takes a neutral position with respect to territorial claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. Research reported in this publication was supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the University of Melbourne, Public Health England, the Norwegian Institute of Public Health, the National Institute on Aging of the National Institutes of Health (NIH; award P30AG047845), and the National Institute of Mental Health of the NIH (award R01MH110163). This analysis uses data or information from the Longitudinal Aging Study in India (LASI) pilot micro data and documentation. The development and release of the LASI pilot study was funded by the National Institute on Aging of the NIH (R21AG032572, R03AG043052, and R01AG030153). The Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics granted the researchers access to relevant data in accordance with license number SLN2014-3-170, after subjecting data to processing aiming to preserve the confidentiality of individual data in accordance with the General Statistics Law, 2000. The researchers are solely responsible for the conclusions and inferences drawn upon available data. Data were included from the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring survey, conducted by the National Research University Higher School of Economics and ZAO Demoscope together with Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and the Institute of Sociology, Russia Academy of Sciences. The United States Aging, Demographics, and Memory Study is a supplement to the Health and Retirement Study, which is sponsored by the National Institute of Aging (grant number NIA U01AG009740). It was conducted jointly by Duke University and the University of Michigan. L G Abreu acknowledges support from Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (Brazil; finance code 001) and Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq, a Brazilian funding agency). O Adetokunboh acknowledges the South African Department of Science and Innovation and the National Research Foundation. A Agrawal acknowledges the Wellcome Trust DBT India Alliance Senior Fellowship. S Aljunid acknowledges the Department of Health Policy and Management, Faculty of Public Health, Kuwait University and International Centre for Casemix and Clinical Coding, Faculty of Medicine, National University of Malaysia for the approval and support to participate in this research project. M Ausloos, C Herteliu, and A Pana acknowledge partial support by a grant of the Romanian National Authority for Scientific Research and Innovation, CNDS-UEFISCDI, project number PN-III-P4-ID-PCCF-2016-0084. T Bärnighausen acknowledges support from the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation through the Alexander von Humboldt Professor award, funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research. D Bennett acknowledges support by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Oxford Biomedical Research Centre. The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the NHS, the NIHR or the UK Department of Health and Social Care. J J Carrero was supported by the Swedish Research Council (2019-01059). F Caravlho and E Fernandes acknowledge support from UID/MULTI/04378/2019 and UID/QUI/50006/2019 with funding from FCT/MCTES through national funds. V M Costa acknowledges the grant SFRH/BHD/110001/2015, received by Portuguese national funds through Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia, IP, under the Norma Transitória DL57/2016/CP1334/CT0006. K Deribe acknowledges support by the Wellcome Trust (201900/Z/16/Z) as part of his International Intermediate Fellowship. M Ferreira acknowledges her research fellowship from the National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) of Australia. C Flohr acknowledges support by the NIHR Biomedical Research Centre based at Guy's and St Thomas' NHS Foundation Trust. M Freitas acknowledges financial support from the EU (European Regional Development Fund [FEDER] funds through COMPETE POCI-01-0145-FEDER-029248) and National Funds (Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia) through project PTDC/NAN-MAT/29248/2017. C Herteliu was partially supported by a grant co-funded by FEDER through Operational Competitiveness Program (project ID P_40_382). P Hoogar acknowledges the Bio Cultural Studies, Manipal Academy of Higher Education, and Manipal and Centre for Holistic Development and Research, Kalaghatgi. S V Katikireddi acknowledges funding from a NRS Senior Clinical Fellowship (SCAF/15/02), the Medical Research Council (MC_UU_12017/13, MC_UU_12017/15), and the Scottish Government Chief Scientist Office (SPHSU13, SPHSU15). Y J Kim was supported by Research Management Office, Xiamen University Malaysia (XMUMRF/2018-C2/ITCM/0001). K Krishan is supported by the UCG Centre of Advanced Study awarded to the Department of Anthropology, Panjab University, Chandigarh, India. M Kumar acknowledges the Fogarty International Centre and NIH for the K43 award (K43 TW 010716-03). B Lacey acknowledges support from the NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre and the BHF Centre of Research Excellence, Oxford. J V Lazarus was supported by a Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities Miguel Servet grant (Instituto de Salud Carlos III [ISCIII]/ESF, the EU [CP18/00074]). J McGrath acknowledges support by the Danish National Research Foundation (Niels Bohr Professorship). W Mendoza acknowledges the Population and Development department at the UN Population Fund Country Office in Peru, which does not necessarily endorse this study. George Milne acknowledges support provided by The University of Western Australia. I Moreno Velásquez acknowledges support by the Sistema Nacional de Investigación (SENACYT, Panamá). U O Mueller acknowledges funding by the German National Cohort Study (BMBF grant number 01ER1801D). S Nomura acknowledges the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology of Japan (18K10082). A Ortiz was supported by ISCIII PI19/00815, DTS18/00032, ISCIII-RETIC REDinREN RD016/0009 Fondos FEDER, FRIAT, Comunidad de Madrid B2017/BMD-3686 CIFRA2-CM. These funding sources had no role in the writing of the manuscript or the decision to submit it for publication. G C Patton was supported by a NHMRC fellowship. A Raggi, D Sattin, and S Schiavolin were supported by a grant from the Italian Ministry of Health (Ricerca Corrente, Fondazione Istituto Neurologico C Besta, Linea 4—Outcome Research: dagli Indicatori alle Raccomandazioni Cliniche). A M Samy was supported by a fellowship from the Egyptian Fulbright Mission Program. D F Santomauro is affiliated with the Queensland Centre for Mental Health Research, which receives core funding from the Queensland Department of Health. M M Santric-Milicevic acknowledges the Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development of the Republic of Serbia (contract number 175087). A Sheikh was supported by Health Data Research UK. J B Soriano is funded by the Centro de Investigación en Red de Enfermedades Respiratorias, ISCIII. R Tabarés-Seisdedos was supported in part by the national grant PI17/00719 from ISCIII–FEDER. S Tadakamadla was supported by an NHMRC Early Career Fellowship. N Taveira was partially supported by the European & Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership, the EU (LIFE project, reference RIA2016MC-1615). M Tonelli acknowledges the David Freeze Chair in Health Services Research at the University of Calgary. C S Wiysonge was supported by the South African Medical Research Council. S B Zaman received a scholarship from the Australian Government research training programme in support of his academic career.

    FundersFunder number
    CNDS-UEFISCDIPN-III-P4-ID-PCCF-2016-0084
    Centro de Investigación en Red de Enfermedades RespiratoriasPI17/00719
    Egyptian Fulbright Mission Program
    FRIAT
    Fondazione Istituto Neurologico
    German National Cohort Study
    Health Data Research UK
    Institute of Sociology
    Population and Development department
    Research Management Office
    Scottish Government Chief Scientist OfficeSPHSU15, SPHSU13
    Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities Miguel Servet
    Wellcome Trust DBT
    Xiamen University MalaysiaXMUMRF/2018-C2/ITCM/0001
    National Institutes of Health
    National Institute of Mental HealthSLN2014-3-170, R01MH110163
    National Institute on AgingR21AG032572, R03AG043052, U01AG009740, P30AG047845, R01AG030153
    Fogarty International CenterK43 TW 010716-03
    Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation
    National Rosacea SocietySCAF/15/02
    Alexander von Humboldt-Stiftung
    Duke University
    University of Michigan
    Queensland Health
    Wellcome Trust201900/Z/16/Z
    Comunidad de MadridB2017/BMD-3686 CIFRA2-CM
    Manchester Biomedical Research Centre
    Department of Science and Innovation, South Africa
    Manipal Academy of Higher Education
    Chandigarh University
    Medical Research CouncilMC_UU_12017/13, MC_UU_12017/15
    National Institute for Health and Care Research
    Department of Health and Social Care
    European Commission
    National Health and Medical Research Council
    National Research Foundation
    South African Medical Research Council
    Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and TechnologyDTS18/00032, 18K10082, ISCIII-RETIC REDinREN RD016/0009, PI19/00815
    European and Developing Countries Clinical Trials PartnershipRIA2016MC-1615
    Danmarks Grundforskningsfond
    University of Melbourne
    University of Western Australia
    Fundação para a Ciência e a TecnologiaDL57/2016/CP1334/CT0006
    Public Health England
    Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior
    Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung01ER1801D
    Russian Academy of Sciences
    Ministero della Salute
    Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico
    Vetenskapsrådet2019-01059, UID/MULTI/04378/2019, UID/QUI/50006/2019
    Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia
    Ministarstvo Prosvete, Nauke i Tehnološkog Razvoja175087
    Instituto de Salud Carlos III
    European Social FundCP18/00074
    BHF Centre of Research Excellence, Oxford
    Autoritatea Natională pentru Cercetare Stiintifică
    Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia e Ensino SuperiorSFRH/BHD/110001/2015
    Secretaria Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnología
    European Regional Development Fund
    Programa Operacional Temático Factores de CompetitividadeP_40_382, PTDC/NAN-MAT/29248/2017, POCI-01-0145-FEDER-029248
    NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre
    Sistema Nacional de Investigadores
    Norwegian Institute of Public Health

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