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Global, regional, and national sex-specific burden and control of the HIV epidemic, 1990–2019, for 204 countries and territories: the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019

  • Deepa Jahagirdar
  • , Magdalene K. Walters
  • , Amanda Novotney
  • , Edmond D. Brewer
  • , Tahvi D. Frank
  • , Austin Carter
  • , Molly H. Biehl
  • , Hedayat Abbastabar
  • , E. S. Abhilash
  • , Eman Abu-Gharbieh
  • , Laith Jamal Abu-Raddad
  • , Victor Adekanmbi
  • , Daniel Adedayo Adeyinka
  • , Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani
  • , Saira Afzal
  • , Soodabeh Aghababaei
  • , Bright Opoku Ahinkorah
  • , Sajjad Ahmad
  • , Keivan Ahmadi
  • , Sepideh Ahmadi
  • Ehsan Ahmadpour, Muktar Beshir Ahmed, Tarik Ahmed Rashid, Yusra Ahmed Salih, Addis Aklilu, Tayyaba Akram, Chisom Joyqueenet Akunna, Hanadi Al Hamad, Fares Alahdab, Fahad Mashhour Alanezi, Ekaterina A. Aleksandrova, Kefyalew Addis Alene, Liaqat Ali, Vahid Alipour, Sami Almustanyir, Nelson Alvis-Guzman, Edward Kwabena Ameyaw, Hubert Amu, Catalina Liliana Andrei, Tudorel Andrei, Davood Anvari, Jalal Arabloo, Olatunde Aremu, Judie Arulappan, Desta Debalkie Atnafu, Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla, Muluken Altaye Ayza, Samad Azari, B. B. Darshan, Maciej Banach, Till Winfried Bärnighausen, Fabio Barra, Amadou Barrow, Sanjay Basu, Shahrzad Bazargan-Hejazi, Habtamu Gebrehana Belay, Tezera Moshago Berheto, Woldesellassie Mequanint Bezabhe, Yihienew Mequanint Bezabih, Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula, Nikha Bhardwaj, Pankaj Bhardwaj, Krittika Bhattacharyya, Sadia Bibi, Ali Bijani, Catherine Bisignano, Obasanjo Afolabi Bolarinwa, Archith Boloor, Azizbek A. Boltaev, Nikolay Ivanovich Briko, Danilo Buonsenso, Katrin Burkart, Zahid A. Butt, Chao Cao, Jaykaran Charan, Souranshu Chatterjee, Soosanna Kumary Chattu, Vijay Kumar Chattu, Sonali Gajanan Choudhari, Dinh Toi Chu, Rosa A.S. Couto, Richard G. Cowden, Berihun Assefa Dachew, Omid Dadras, Amare Belachew Dagnew, Saad M.A. Dahlawi, Xiaochen Dai, Lalit Dandona, Rakhi Dandona, José das Neves, Louisa Degenhardt, Feleke Mekonnen Demeke, Abebaw Alemayehu Desta, Keshab Deuba, Deepak Dhamnetiya, Govinda Prasad Dhungana, Mostafa Dianatinasab, Daniel Diaz, Shirin Djalalinia, Linh Phuong Doan, Fariba Dorostkar, Hisham Atan Edinur, Andem Effiong, Sahar Eftekharzadeh, Maysaa El Sayed Zaki, Rajesh Elayedath, Muhammed Elhadi, Shaimaa I. El-Jaafary, Ziad El-Khatib, Aisha Elsharkawy, Aklilu Endalamaw, Aman Yesuf Endries, Sharareh Eskandarieh, Ifeanyi Jude Ezeonwumelu, Sayeh Ezzikouri, Mohammad Farahmand, Emerito Jose A. Faraon, Abidemi Omolara Fasanmi, Simone Ferrero, Lorenzo Ferro Desideri, Irina Filip, Florian Fischer, Morenike Oluwatoyin Folayan, Masoud Foroutan, Takeshi Fukumoto, Mohamed M. Gad, Muktar A. Gadanya, Abhay Motiramji Gaidhane, Tushar Garg, Reta Tsegaye Gayesa, Eyob Alemayehu Gebreyohannes, Hailay Abrha Gesesew, Abera Getachew Obsa, Keyghobad Ghadiri, Ahmad Ghashghaee, Syed Amir Gilani, Themba G. Ginindza, Ionela Roxana Glăvan, Ekaterina Vladimirovna Glushkova, Mahaveer Golechha, Harish Chander Gugnani, Bhawna Gupta, Sapna Gupta, Veer Bala Gupta, Vivek Kumar Gupta, Samer Hamidi, Senad Handanagic, Shafiul Haque, Harapan Harapan, Arief Hargono, Ahmed I. Hasaballah, Abdiwahab Hashi, Shoaib Hassan, Soheil Hassanipour, Khezar Hayat, Ileana Heredia-Pi, Kamal Hezam, Ramesh Holla, Praveen Hoogar, Mohammad Enamul Hoque, Mostafa Hosseini, Mehdi Hosseinzadeh, Mohamed Hsairi, Rabia Hussain, Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye, Bulat Idrisov, Kevin S. Ikuta, Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi, Irena M. Ilic, Milena D. Ilic, Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani, M. Mofizul Islam, Nahlah Elkudssiah Ismail, Ramaiah Itumalla, Ihoghosa Osamuyi Iyamu, Roxana Jabbarinejad, Vardhmaan Jain, Ranil Jayawardena, Ravi Prakash Jha, Nitin Joseph, Ali Kabir, Zubair Kabir, Rohollah Kalhor, Feroze Kaliyadan, Ashwin Kamath, Tanuj Kanchan, Himal Kandel, Getinet Kassahun, Patrick D.M.C. Katoto, Gbenga A. Kayode, Ermiyas Mulu Kebede, Hafte Kahsay Kebede, Himanshu Khajuria, Nauman Khalid, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Gulfaraz Khan, Khaled Khatab, Min Seo Kim, Yun Jin Kim, Adnan Kisa, Sezer Kisa, Sonali Kochhar, Vladimir Andreevich Korshunov, Parvaiz A. Koul, Sindhura Lakshmi Koulmane Laxminarayana, Ai Koyanagi, Kewal Krishan, Barthelemy Kuate Defo, G. Anil Kumar, Manasi Kumar, Nithin Kumar, Alexander Kwarteng, Dharmesh Kumar Lal, Iván Landires, Savita Lasrado, Zohra S. Lassi, Jeffrey V. Lazarus, Jane Jean Hee Lee, Yeong Yeh Lee, Kate E. LeGrand, Christine Lin, Xuefeng Liu, Emilie R. Maddison, Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek, Phetole Walter Mahasha, Azeem Majeed, Alaa Makki, Ahmad Azam Malik, Wondimu Ayele Manamo, Mohammad Ali Mansournia, Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo, Seyedeh Zahra Masoumi, Ziad A. Memish, Ritesh G. Menezes, Endalkachew Worku Mengesha, Hayimro Edemealem Merie, Amanual Getnet Mersha, Tomislav Mestrovic, Peter Meylakhs, Nour Mheidly, Ted R. Miller, Andreea Mirica, Babak Moazen, Yousef Mohammad, Mokhtar Mohammadi, Arif Mohammed, Salahuddin Mohammed, Shafiu Mohammed, Modhurima Moitra, Ali H. Mokdad, Mariam Molokhia, Mohammad Ali Moni, Ghobad Moradi, Yousef Moradi, Christine Mpundu-Kaambwa, Sumaira Mubarik, Sandra B. Munro, Lillian Mwanri, Jean B. Nachega, Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan, Aparna Ichalangod Narayana, Muhammad Naveed, Biswa Prakash Nayak, Sabina O. Nduaguba, Sandhya Neupane Kandel, Georges Nguefack-Tsague, Trang Huyen Nguyen, Molly R. Nixon, Chukwudi A. Nnaji, Jean Jacques Noubiap, Virginia Nuñez-Samudio, Thomas Elliot Nyirenda, Onome Bright Oghenetega, Andrew T. Olagunju, Babayemi Oluwaseun Olakunde, Oluwatomi Funbi Owopetu, P. A. Mahesh, Jagadish Rao Padubidri, Smita Pakhale, Tarang Parekh, Fatemeh Pashazadeh Kan, Shrikant Pawar, Veincent Christian Filipino Pepito, Emmanuel K. Peprah, Marina Pinheiro, Khem Narayan Pokhrel, Roman V. Polibin, Richard Charles G. Pollok, Maarten J. Postma, Zahiruddin Quazi Syed, Amir Radfar, Raghu Anekal Radhakrishnan, Fakher Rahim, Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar, Shadi Rahimzadeh, Mosiur Rahman, Amir Masoud Rahmani, Pradhum Ram, Chhabi Lal Ranabhat, Priyanga Ranasinghe, Chythra R. Rao, Sowmya J. Rao, Priya Rathi, David Laith Rawaf, Salman Rawaf, Lemma Demissie Regassa, Inayat ur Rehman, Andre M.N. Renzaho, Nima Rezaei, Omid Rezahosseini, Mohammad Sadegh Rezai, Aziz Rezapour, Rezaul Karim Ripon, Voilet Rodrigues, Denis O. Roshchin, Godfrey M. Rwegerera, Umar Saeed, Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam, Rajesh Sagar, K. M. Saif-Ur-Rahman, Marwa Rashad Salem, Mehrnoosh Samaei, Abdallah M. Samy, Milena M. Santric-Milicevic, Satish Saroshe, Brijesh Sathian, Maheswar Satpathy, Monika Sawhney, Aletta Elisabeth Schutte, Allen Seylani, Masood Ali Shaikh, Mohammed Feyisso Shaka, Hina Shamshad, Morteza Shamsizadeh, Mohammed Shannawaz, Adithi Shetty, Jae Il Shin, K. M. Shivakumar, Jasvinder A. Singh, Valentin Yurievich Skryabin, Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina, Ranjani Somayaji, Sergey Soshnikov, Emma Elizabeth Spurlock, Dan J. Stein, Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufiyan, Hooman Tadbiri, Birkneh Tilahun Tadesse, Eyayou Girma Tadesse, Animut Tagele Tamiru, Elvis Enowbeyang Tarkang, Nuno Taveira, Yohannes Tekalegn, Fisaha Haile Tesfay, Gizachew Assefa Tessema, Rekha Thapar, Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone, Eugenio Traini, Bach Xuan Tran, Alexander C. Tsai, Biruk Shalmeno Tusa, Saif Ullah, Chukwuma David Umeokonkwo, Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan, Sahel Valadan Tahbaz, Jorge Hugo Villafañe, Sergey Konstantinovitch Vladimirov, Bay Vo, Avina Vongpradith, Giang Thu Vu, Yasir Waheed, Richard G. Wamai, Guan Wang, Yanzhong Wang, Paul Ward, Ronny Westerman, Andrea Sylvia Winkler, Lalit Yadav, Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari, Taklo Simeneh Yazie, Siyan Yi, Vahit Yiğit, Birhanu Wubale Yirdaw, Naohiro Yonemoto, Chuanhua Yu, Ismaeel Yunusa, Mikhail Sergeevich Zastrozhin, Anasthasia Zastrozhina, Zhi Jiang Zhang, Alimuddin Zumla, Joshua A. Salomon, Jeffrey W. Eaton, Mohsen Naghavi, Laura Dwyer-Lindgren, Haidong Wang, Stephen S. Lim, Simon I. Hay, Christopher J.L. Murray, Hmwe H. Kyu*
*Corresponding author for this work
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    Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

    105 Citations (SciVal)
    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)e633-e651
    JournalThe Lancet HIV
    Volume8
    Issue number10
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished (VoR) - Oct 2021

    Funding

    L Abu-Raddad acknowledges the support of Qatar National Research Fund (NPRP 9-040-3-008) who provided the main funding for generating the data provided to the GBD-IHME effort. T Bärnighausen was supported by the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation through the Alexander von Humboldt Professor award, funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research. S Bazargan-Hejazi was partly supported by the National Institute of Health (NIH) National Center for Advancing Translational Science UCLA CTSI (grant number UL1TR001881). L Degenhardt is supported by an NHMRC Senior Principal Research Fellowship (1135991) and a US NIH National Institute on Drug Abuse (NIDA) grant (R01DA1104470). NDARC, UNSW Sydney, is supported by funding from the Australian Government Department of Health under the Drug and Alcohol Programme. J Eaton was supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1190661), UNAIDS, the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease of the NIH under award numbers R01AI136664, and the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis (reference MR/R015600/1), jointly funded by the UK Medical Research Council (MRC) and the UK Foreign, Commonwealth, and Development Office (FCDO), under the MRC/FCDO Concordat agreement and is also part of the EDCTP2 programme supported by the European Union. V B Gupta acknowledges funding support from National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC), Australia. V K Gupta acknowledges support from NHMRC, Australia. S Haque is grateful to the DSR, Jazan University, Saudi Arabia for providing the access of the Saudi Digital Library for this study. P Hoogar would like to acknowledge the Centre for Bio Cultural Studies Directorate of Research, Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Manipal-Karnataka, India. Y J Kim's portion of this work was supported by the Research Management Centre, Xiamen University Malaysia (Np:XMUMRF-C6/ITCM/0004). S L Koulmane Laxminarayana acknolwedges institutional support by Manipal Academy of Higher Education. K Krishan is supported by the UGC Centre of Advanced Study (phase 2), awarded to the Department of Anthropology, Panjab University, Chandigarh, India. M Kumar acknowledges grant FIC/NIH K43 TW010716-04. I Landires is member of the Sistema Nacional de Investigación, supported by the Secretaría Nacional de Ciencia, Tecnología e Innovación, Panama. J Lazarus acknowledges support to ISGlobal from the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation, and Universities through the Centro de Excelencia Severo Ochoa 2019–23 programme (CEX2018-000806-S), and from the Government of Catalonia, Spain, through the CERCA programme. P Mahasha acknowledges grants, innovation, and product development from the South African Medical Research Council. P Meylahk's portion of this research was supported by the Russian Science Foundation (under grant project number 20-18-00307; the health of nation: the multidimensional analysis of health, health inequality, and health-related quality of life). M Molokhia is supported by the National Institute for Health Research Biomedical Research Centre at Guy's and St Thomas’ National Health Service Foundation Trust and King's College London. J Nachega is an infectious disease internist and epidemiologist and Principal Investigator of NIH/Fogarty International Center (grant numbers 1R25TW011217-01, 1R21TW011706-01, and 1D43TW010937-01A1). A Samy acknowledges support from a fellowship of the Egyptian Fulbright Mission programme. A Shetty acknowledges the support given by Kasturba Medical College Mangalore, Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Manipal. N Taveira's work is partially funded by Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia, Portugal, and Aga Khan Development Network, Portugal Collaborative Research Network in Portuguese speaking countries in Africa (project 332821690), and by the LIFE project (RIA2016MC-1615), and European and Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership. G Tessema was funded by the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council Investigator (grant number 1195716). B Unnikrishnan acknowledges Kasturba Medical College, Mangalore, Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Manipal. A Zumla acknowledges support from the European and Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership programme, Horizon 2020, and the European Union's Framework Programme for Research and Innovation (grants PANDORA-ID-NET, TESA-2, and CANTAM-2). S Afzal reports an unpaid leadership role as General Secretary for the Pakistan Society of Community Medicine and Public Health, working for prevention and advocacy of AIDS in families of HIV patients by providing advocacy and counseling services to the families, children, and partners of patients with AIDS and screening them for HIV in Pakistan, outside the submitted work. T Bärnighausen reports research grants from the European Union (Horizon 2020 and EIT Health), German Research Foundation (also known as DFG), US National Institutes of Health (NIH), German Ministry of Education and Research, Alexander von Humboldt Foundation, Else-Kröner-Fresenius-Foundation, the Wellcome Trust, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, KfW, UNAIDS, and WHO; consulting fees for KfW on the OSCAR initiative in Vietnam; and participation on a Data Safety Monitoring Board or Advisory Board through the NIH-funded study Healthy Options (Principle Investigators Smith Fawzi, Kaaya), Chair, Data Safety and Monitoring Board, German National Committee on the Future of Public Health Research and Education, Chair of the scientific advisory board to the EDCTP Evaluation, Member of the UNAIDS Evaluation Expert Advisory Committee, National Institutes of Health Study Section Member on Population and Public Health Approaches to HIV/AIDS, US National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine's Committee for the Evaluation of Human Resources for Health in the Republic of Rwanda under the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (also known as PEPFAR), University of Pennsylvania Population Aging Research Center External Advisory Board Member; and a leadership or fiduciary role in other board, society, committee, or advocacy group, paid or unpaid as Co-Chair of the Global Health Hub Germany (which was initiated by the German Ministry of Health), all outside the submitted work. J Eaton reports institutional support for the manuscript from the Gates Foundation, UNAIDS, and National Institutes of Health; grants or contracts from WHO, Gates foundation, and UNAIDS; consulting fees from WHO; and support for attending meetings or travel from WHO and UNAIDS, all outside the submitted work. I Filip reports financial support from Avicenna Medical and Clinical Research Institute, outside the submitted work. I Iyamu reports support for attending FHI 360 HIV prevention, care, and treatment training events in Nigeria, outside the submitted work. K Krishan reports non-financial support from UGC Centre of Advanced Study, CAS II, Department of Anthropology, Panjab University, Chandigarh, India, outside the submitted work. K LeGrand reports support for the present manuscript through payment to the institution (Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation) from the Gates Foundation. M Postma reports a leadership or fiduciary role in other board, society, committee, or advocacy group, unpaid as member of UK's JCVI. O Rezahosseini reports grants or contracts from the Research Foundation of Rigshospitalet and the A P Møller Fonden; and support for attending meetings or travel from EACS 2019 Basel, all outside the submitted work. J Salomon reports support for the present manuscript through a research grant paid to the institution (Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation) from the Gates Foundation. J Singh reports consulting fees from Crealta/Horizon, Medisys, Fidia, Two labs, Adept Field Solutions, Clinical Care Options, Clearview Health-Care Partners, Putnam Associates, Focus Forward, Navigant Consulting, Spherix, MedIQ, UBM LLC, Trio Health, Medscape, WebMD, and Practice Point Communications, the NIH, and the American College of Rheumatology; payment or honoraria for lectures, presentations, speakers bureaus, manuscript writing, or educational events from Simply Speaking; support for attending meetings or travel from OMERACT, an international organisation that develops measures for clinical trials and receives arm's-length funding from 12 pharmaceutical companies, when traveling biannually to OMERACT meetings; participation on a Data Safety Monitoring Board or Advisory Board as a member of the FDA Arthritis Advisory Committee; a leadership or fiduciary role in other board, society, committee, or advocacy group, paid or unpaid, with OMERACT as a member of the steering committee, with the Veterans Affairs Rheumatology Field Advisory Committee as a member, and with the UAB Cochrane Musculoskeletal Group Satellite Center on Network Meta-analysis as a director and editor; and stock or stock options in TPT Global Tech, Vaxart pharmaceuticals, Charlotte's Web Holdings, and previously owned stock options in Amarin, Viking, and Moderna pharmaceuticals, all outside the submitted work. D Stein reports personal fees from Lundbeck, Takeda, Johnson & Johnson and Servier, all outside the submitted work. A Tsai reports stipend for work as Editor-in-Chief of Social Science and Medicine, Mental Health from Elsevier. All other authors declare no competing interests. L Abu-Raddad acknowledges the support of Qatar National Research Fund (NPRP 9-040-3-008) who provided the main funding for generating the data provided to the GBD-IHME effort. T Bärnighausen was supported by the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation through the Alexander von Humboldt Professor award, funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research. S Bazargan-Hejazi was partly supported by the National Institute of Health (NIH) National Center for Advancing Translational Science UCLA CTSI (grant number UL1TR001881). L Degenhardt is supported by an NHMRC Senior Principal Research Fellowship (1135991) and a US NIH National Institute on Drug Abuse (NIDA) grant (R01DA1104470). NDARC, UNSW Sydney, is supported by funding from the Australian Government Department of Health under the Drug and Alcohol Programme. J Eaton was supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1190661), UNAIDS, the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease of the NIH under award numbers R01AI136664, and the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis (reference MR/R015600/1), jointly funded by the UK Medical Research Council (MRC) and the UK Foreign, Commonwealth, and Development Office (FCDO), under the MRC/FCDO Concordat agreement and is also part of the EDCTP2 programme supported by the European Union. V B Gupta acknowledges funding support from National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC), Australia. V K Gupta acknowledges support from NHMRC, Australia. S Haque is grateful to the DSR, Jazan University, Saudi Arabia for providing the access of the Saudi Digital Library for this study. P Hoogar would like to acknowledge the Centre for Bio Cultural Studies Directorate of Research, Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Manipal-Karnataka, India. Y J Kim's portion of this work was supported by the Research Management Centre, Xiamen University Malaysia (Np:XMUMRF-C6/ITCM/0004). S L Koulmane Laxminarayana acknolwedges institutional support by Manipal Academy of Higher Education. K Krishan is supported by the UGC Centre of Advanced Study (phase 2), awarded to the Department of Anthropology, Panjab University, Chandigarh, India. M Kumar acknowledges grant FIC/NIH K43 TW010716-04. I Landires is member of the Sistema Nacional de Investigación, supported by the Secretaría Nacional de Ciencia, Tecnología e Innovación, Panama. J Lazarus acknowledges support to ISGlobal from the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation, and Universities through the Centro de Excelencia Severo Ochoa 2019–23 programme (CEX2018-000806-S), and from the Government of Catalonia, Spain, through the CERCA programme. P Mahasha acknowledges grants, innovation, and product development from the South African Medical Research Council. P Meylahk's portion of this research was supported by the Russian Science Foundation (under grant project number 20-18-00307; the health of nation: the multidimensional analysis of health, health inequality, and health-related quality of life). M Molokhia is supported by the National Institute for Health Research Biomedical Research Centre at Guy's and St Thomas’ National Health Service Foundation Trust and King's College London. J Nachega is an infectious disease internist and epidemiologist and Principal Investigator of NIH/Fogarty International Center (grant numbers 1R25TW011217-01, 1R21TW011706-01, and 1D43TW010937-01A1). A Samy acknowledges support from a fellowship of the Egyptian Fulbright Mission programme. A Shetty acknowledges the support given by Kasturba Medical College Mangalore, Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Manipal. N Taveira's work is partially funded by Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia, Portugal, and Aga Khan Development Network, Portugal Collaborative Research Network in Portuguese speaking countries in Africa (project 332821690), and by the LIFE project (RIA2016MC-1615), and European and Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership. G Tessema was funded by the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council Investigator (grant number 1195716). B Unnikrishnan acknowledges Kasturba Medical College, Mangalore, Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Manipal. A Zumla acknowledges support from the European and Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership programme, Horizon 2020, and the European Union's Framework Programme for Research and Innovation (grants PANDORA-ID-NET, TESA-2, and CANTAM-2).

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