Unlocking coevolution and inclusive innovations: dynamics of marginalised agents in immature innovation systems

Innovation system research is frequently organised around formal institutions, such as universities, research centres, government agencies, and established firms, that operate within well-resourced and institutionalised environments. This structural focus often excludes marginalised actors—frequently found in developing countries—such as informal entrepreneurs, smallholder producers, and community-based organisations. These groups typically lack the institutional support, capabilities, or formal recognition necessary to engage meaningfully in mainstream innovation processes. This study develops an agent-based model (ABM) to explore how an inclusive/exclusive system can emerge from the interactions between marginalised and conventional heterogeneous agents, focusing on coalition formation and the dynamic accumulation of capabilities. Extending previous ABMs of inclusive innovation systems, the model introduces a unified opportunity structure and simulates learning-by-doing, using, and interacting as mechanisms through which marginalised agents build innovation capacity. Drawing on empirical features of immature innovation systems, we analyse baseline and experimental scenarios to explore the conditions that enable broader inclusion in innovation networks. The results highlight the critical role of institutional scaffolding, knowledge-sharing mechanisms, and alignment between agent capabilities and the directionality of innovation opportunities. This work contributes to the literature by showing how coevolutionary processes shape long-term participation and systemic inclusion. Policy implications centre on designing targeted STI interventions and developing structured learning environments to foster more inclusive and resilient innovation ecosystems.